Infected : 300 officially.
Dead : 6.
Therefore death rate is around 2%. Compare that with MERS where death rate was 30% or the new Dengu strain in BD where death rate was 0.5%.
Now these numbers might not be accurate. Hundreds might be dying and China might be hiding the bodies, or millions might have been infected with only six dead and China might be pulling down the number of infections.
But right now -- I still don't see much to be worried about. We already have much worse around.
One infected in USA, though not sick.
Another one infected in Mexico and is sick.
Reminds me of Resident Evil
[ or Fallout or BioHazard which ever triggers you ]
|| Images and videos of people falling on street and hospital floor.
Report : "People in Wuhan are falling on streets. One person (a famous entrepreneur) died without any symptom. No coughing no fever. His wife is dead too. Potential variation in the virus which is mutating."
Another report : "My friend left the city and phoned to tell me things are worse than reported. People are falling down without symptoms. Nurse told me the virus has mutated to be more deadly."
|| China won't had quarantined cities unless its that bad
16 cities in lock down. 35 million people quarantined. Roads are empty like in apocalyptic movies. No transport on road, all shops closed. Local hospitals full. Lock down extending to more cities.
|| The numbers
40 dead from 1000 infections. Indicating a 4% death rate officially. But China lied previously to hide numbers.
|| The other side
Maybe that's hysteria. And people fall on the street all the time, add the stress and fear and it doesn't take long to make it look like a Walking Dead like scene.
Infection death rate at 4% is still bellow other more deadly flu. Total death isn't higher than any other normal flu season which sees 50,000 dead in UK or USA in any average year.
- Investigators interviewed the first infected persons and found half of them didn't have any link with the animal market.
- Largest virus research facility in China is in Wuhan, the epicenter of the infection, near that animal market. This one is the "Umbrella Corp" of Resident Evil.
- 15% mortality from the first 41 people who were infected.
- From the very beginning it was clear that *unlike* regular flu which kills only elderly this one was killing young and elderly equally. China hid it and published age of elderly only.
Others cried about privacy.
I thought : well if I have nothing to hide, then...
And then this coronavirus struck. Right now anyone from Hubei, the large area where the virus is spreading, tries to find a shelter somewhere out of his region, he is out of luck.
No gas station will sell him gas, no hotel will allow him in, no ride, no food once they see his Hubei ID. He is untouchable. He doesn't need to have lived in Hubei, just because he is carrying an id is enough of a reason to deny him service.
He is like a fugitive in his own country and the only way he can be accepted and be at home, is by returning to Hubei.
Which is why we need : Privacy.
The panic within the population as always, because these deaths can somehow be linked with China. Otherwise it won't have been any news whatsoever.
News link in comment.
- China might not have quarantined the whole country yet, but every country bordering it has closed border crossing with China. Mark an acceleration.
- No human to human contamination *outside* of China was reported till date. And today two such cases occurred simultaneously. Someone in Japan has caught the virus who never visited China. And in Germany someone meet with a woman in China, and later was diagnosed infected. Note that in the German case the man was 33 years old.
- No one outside of China has died from Coronavirus -- yet.
But the main point I still am waiting to see is the mortality rate. You most probably CAN'T prevent it. You will get it and have to survive it. Mortality rate comes in handy in these cases to get an idea on your possibilities.
Right, it's next door in Calcutta!
Those that felt relaxed that no coronavirus case was reported in India.
Link in comment. :-)
- Traditional surgical masks are tk. 5 per piece. But those don't prevent virus.
- For it you need N95 mask. Not available in pharmacy but selling on Daraz online store. Tk. 100 to 300 per piece. And those can't be worn a second time. You need to throw those out. Not throwing out after use increases your chance of infection than not wearing any at all.
- Masks "just slightly" reduce possibility of an infection. Not worth the cost or hassle. The China styled "everyone must wear a mask while outdoors" law isn't supported by CDC, the US body, which I take as more reliable and less showing off "look the government is doing something."
- Masks are selling out in all countries in the west, Australia, Thailand, Philippines, China, Honk Kong. Plus the largest producers are China/HK who have banned all mask export further increasing the crisis worldwide.
- Now do I need to buy masks? Not if you are practical and can move against the tide. But you *will* have to, if you own a family who will inevitably cry "can't you just provide us a simple mask!" :-)
- First off, you don't need to stock for foods. Even if you do, you will end up wasting those food items, getting expired or left un-consumed. Your loss.
- Second, masks aren't effective. But you might still have to buy when you see the rush of everyone buying those, and feel like you are missing out and need to go with the tide. Masks will sell out on the first day this rush strikes BD [ হুজুগ ].
- I am yet to be convinced that it's more scary than the normal flu. To get better numbers, watch how many are getting diagnosed for coronavirus in the western countries and how many of them are dying. None yet.
- Even most of the people in China are getting infected silently and recovering silently, without ever realizing they ever caught it. That's the case for most virus infections. Imagine how many of us are getting attacked by TB everyday but never get sick.
- But the panic might kill you more than the virus. Getting rejected by the society, locked indoors, forced to live with sick or quarantined, not being able to take care of your family, no work, business or earnings. These are harmful. And unfortunately that's what is happening in China.
- only 30% of the infected will get sick. 70% won't ever get sick and will recover transparently.
well, i think that was enough of coronavirus and middle east related posts.
time to find a new topic. :-)
Plus healthcare there is subpar.
Anyway India has finally received coronavirus test kits, set a test center up in Pune and found first officialy confirmed infection. Link in comment.
Expect this news to grow big over the day.
As 30% of infected get sick. And 15% of the sick die. That makes 5%. Add 2% for social, medical system breakdown and the panic.
Note the "worst" word above before you start to reply how it's wrong.
- India bans facemask export. Hoarding begins in India.
- You can get infected a second time. Incomplete immunity plus mutating virus.
- India's smartphone hit by supply woes from China.
- China realizes it's overdoing, calls for calm, no panic.
- Worst case scenario : whole China might get quarantined.
- Things will improve once summer heat falls in.
I won't spend exorbitant amount of money now on face masks, as prices have already doubled now.
- First death outside of China, in Philippines.
- Second confirmed infection in India.
- First confirmed infection in NY.
- China's new hospital built for Coronavirus has been completed in just 9 days, handed over today. Kudos.
- Secret cam and report. 500 dying everyday in Wuhan.
- People fully recovered from infection is equal to that of dead, as per numbers published from China.
- Virologist, death rate is anything between 0.1% to 1% max. But 20% of the sick will need hospital assistance.
- Burying is now forbidden China, all dead bodies are burnt immediately after death. No Janaza or Funeral allowed either.
- The country China is almost quarantined, everyone has closed border with it and stopped all flights.
- Virus spreads through domestic animals, Report : found on horse body in China, stable quarantined.
- Cats being buried in China for fear of spreading virus.
- China Confirmed : human vomit and stool contains corona virus and spread through it.
- It takes 3 to 4 months to spread through a community. Which is why most of all deaths are in Wuhan. Global spread is forecast to happen next month, in March.
- Won't spread in Spring/Summer heat.
- Countries in Southern hemisphere like Australia are more in risk as "winter is coming" there right now, unlike us who are leaving it behind.
"Raccoon" city was the epicenter in Resident Evil.
Rearange the letters of the city name, and you get "Corona", virus that's killing now.
- Turkey's in the game. Now actively fighting against Syrian government forces in Idlib. Plus their presence increasing in Libya.
- 4 infectious diseases spreading. Coronavirus, African swine fever which has already killed half of the global pig population mostly all in China. Bird flu re-emerged in China and India. And swine flu h1n1 in China.
At that time this post looked like big. And now, it looks pale. Analyst : 6 to 12 months later the whole world will look like China.
Another one died in HK, outside of mainland China. 3rd infection detected in Kerala, India.
All 3 cases in India detected in Kerala because only Kerala has the detection ability. In other places of India it's most likely spreading silently.
Mortality rate is still undetermined. But likely 2%. Either you will recover silently without any symptom. Or die suddenly.
Report, in BD only one flight of passengers from China has been quarantined, if that can be called so. Passengers from other later flights are leaving the airport after 5 hours of wait.
Why the 5 hours of wait? To show that officers really care about rules and regulation. Until 5 hours that is, when they figure out there's no end solution and set the passengers free.
Quarantining China isn't a solution. As people are getting infected all over.
A new case today, a South Korean visited Thailand and caught the virus.
Therefore think of the economic and socio-political aspects next.
Won't go away completely. But expecting it go into back page story within the next few days.
- Coronavirus is spreading like an outbreak, uncontrolled and unquarantined in Hong Kong and likely Singapore. People that have never visited China is getting infected all over. Too many such news.
- A Russian passenger plane was about to be dropped down by a Syrian missile today. Like how it happened in Iran.
- Israeli fighters have bombed Damascus.
- Syrian forces have occupied large portion surrounding Idlib. What next is upto Turkey and Russia to decide. Russian delegate visiting Turkey for talks. If Turkey agrees, then Idlib will be at Syria-Russia-Iran's hand.
- Dr Li. Hardworking caring doctor in China. Watched Coronavirus rising in Dec-2019. Talked about it in a WhatsApp private group with 8 other doctors and discussed it.
- The CCP, the China gov, basically the communist party didn't like it. Obviously they monitor all discussion on the net. They arrested him and the other 8 doctors.
- CCP accused them of "Spreading Rumors" "Disturbing Peace" "Conspiracy against the state" or whatever it liked. Just like how BD gov does when it finds anything it dislikes on the net. They were trialed and jailed for who knows how many years.
- They also forced the eight doctors to appear on TV and self testify admitting guilt. All while they and all other doctors were working non-stop, no-sleep, no-rest, no-toilet serving the infected and taking care of them. In the process doctors themselves getting infected and dying on the job.
- And then news Dr. Li the head conspirator has caught Coronavirus himself, which as per CCP was rumor, which he himself testified against on TV.
- Today's news Dr. Li has died in the same coronavirus which CCP tagged as rumor.
- The whole population in China is on the toe for a revolt, watching the injustice. Enough is enough. Just a spark needed.
- Now news : CCP is calling for an investigation against Li's death feeling the pulse of the people. Like how BD gov calls for investigation.
- Everything in China is breaking down regardless, due to the fear, long quarantine, no business and the dark gloom looming future anyway.
The party that was never likely to fall in foreseeable future, suddenly is on the brink of falling down like cards. All within a month.
Just -- keep -- watching.
And Hong Kong
Will hit BD as soon as it hits India. The panic will hit in a single day, and that day will be the worst.
It's the panic that harms more than the infection. If you want to stock, stock toilet papers and sanitary products only. Not food item.
China hasn't ran out of food in any city. The gov has ensured food supply to continue.
Plus ensure you have multiple redundant net connection. You might have to perform office work from home. As is happening in China.
Also keep a crowbar ready [ the nearest thing in bengali might be "শাবল" ] for defense. There will be looting and home invasion if things drag on for long -- that's the worst case scenario.
That's more bad news. Reason why it hasn't subsided yet. And upcoming days might be a little bit worse than expected.
Pic in comment. Unless that's fake.
- Passed this winter too, with my generic summer cloth that I wear year around, without any warm one. Have forgotten last when I had to wear warm cloths. 20 years back?
- News : regardless of how cold you felt this winter, this January still was the warmest month in recorded history of earth.
- Plus global warming climate simulators world wide are showing unbelievable forecasts for the future. Like 5 degree C increase by the end of this century.
- And also south pole a few days ago, recorded highest temperature ever, 18 degree C.
- And what are middle aged men like me doing? Blame Greta Thunberg for all our miseries of course. :V
- To end this post with something coronavirus. I was waiting for the summer to wipe out the flu for this year. Until noticed that Singapore is just over the equator. Year round summer. And this one is spreading like hell in there.
Conclusion? We are doomed, be it summer or winter. :-)
Mortality rate was found 15% in controlled study in Jan-2020. In a second study it was 11%.
Link to paper.
- This one is RNA virus. Mutates very fast. Harder to create a vaccine against, not impossible.
- Diff between RNA vs DNA virus. DNA is double helix. RNA single strand. Most current fatal viruses are RNA.
- "Super-spreader" version now spreading. RO 14. Everyone spreads to 14 others in his lifetime. This is a mutation of the original virus.
- China office/factories opened today. 10% people joined. Will take this week to watch if production resumes. And the next week to see if that sustains.
- Scene : China arc-welding the iron gate outside of high rise buildings with 80 apartments, when one person is found infected inside. This is to prevent anyone else from going outside.
- Scene : women trying to escape such confinement. Hanging down her balcony she drops off her apartment and falls 10 stairs on road to her death.
- Scene : people going mad. Throwing money off their locked high rise building window, as they can't buy anything off the sacks of money they have and money can't keep them alive.
Q. "Is it like other seasonal flu? or is it worse?"
I am watching Singapore numbers for it. Infected : 50. In ICU : 8. That gives a 15% of people ending up in ICU. But more of the people who are infected today might turn critical next week. Therefore the report that 25% ends up in ICU, is more believable.
Seasonal flu death rate is 0.1%. Spanish flu created pandemic. Death rate 2%. For nCoV we are talking about 5%.
Q. "Will it recede in Summer?"
Trump told that. But he got the information from China's president and echoed it. Not that western virologists saying it.
We will get a better overall picture next month in March, when the hidden global spread will start to get visible.
Q. "Is the situation improving?"
Looked like it's improving. Even though China reported 250 dead in a single day yesterday. Highest yet.
But situation might or might not take a nosedive in the near future. Whether it does or doesn't will be determinant.
Q. "Economic Impact?"
China business have opened. But production is still down. Apple's supplier, reported they hope to return to 50% production capacity by the end of Feb. That's bad considering that they are best performing among others. Production in all industries more likely is now at 10-20% of capacity.
We are feeling the impact here in BD market. Everything imported from China is now in short supply. Specially the raw materials used for production. Resulting in a price hike. The traders and manufacturers are feeling it worst.
No news coverage of it in media due to sensor. Avoid panic.
News : Mysterious signal from a galaxy 500 mLY repeats every 16 days.
This possibly is the first repeated signal we ever encountered.
First it was Bangladeshis crossing Mediterranean in droves leading to refuge crisis and finally UK's Brexit.
Second, crossing the US border from Mexico by Bangladeshies, leading to Trump's win through his promised wall, leading to the unbalanced world we are watching now.
Third, India's NCR and CAA wholly targeted to driving Bangladeshis out of India, leading to its corresponding social unrest and economic collapse.
And I can go with these on and on ...
At least we don't have anything to do with this Coronavirus. Right? That was so relieving. Or so I thought, until --
News : The Coronavirus in Singapore is mostly occurring in Bangladeshi community in Singapore. 2 already infected. Out of total 19 quarantined in Singapore 10 are Bangladeshi.
And today's news : 8 more infected in Singapore, 2 of them Bangladeshi.
Remember that in the 70s and early 80s letters sent from abroad had to put "Bangladesh, India" in its address, as if BD is a part of India, otherwise those didn't reach BD as international post offices didn't know what Bangladesh is.
And when I visited India in early 90s, even the educated population in India couldn't figure out where Bangladesh is. We had to identify ourselves as "near Assam"... "Oh Assam, India? that we know" used to reply the others.
And now when US politicians want to attack their opposers, the first name that comes to their head is "Bangladesh".
Told you : দাবাইয়া রাখতে পারবা না। :-)
- Singapore. Infected : 58. Of which 8 new today. Total 4 are Bangladeshi. Two BD infected today are aged 30s.
- War time status declared in Beijng, plus another city in Hubei province in China. These come at a surprise as China is now trying to downplay the seriousness to save its business.
- 5 new infected in Japan. That's not news. News is that none of these 5 had any contact with China or anyone infected. Indicating the infection is on the loose. Also Japan had its first nCoV death today.
- A city in Vietnam has been quarantined, first city to enter this state outside of China.
- Scene : A women in China handing her heavy golden chain out of her window asking the family upstairs to exchange it for a bag of rice.
- Scene : A kid in China calling her mom from balcony, mom look the van on the road is full of dead bodies. Mom replies "We know."
- Scene : Stacks of 100 yuan notes, equivalent to bdt 1000. The owner making air planes out of each one and throwing those off the window.
But the very short summary :
- It's more like SARS/MERS. After attack in lung, it damages the tissue. Body's immune system jumps in, and makes more damage due to it's hyper activity. Even if one survives then, they live with damaged lung.
- Then there's "cytokine storm". Body bleeds. Lung fills with blood. Resulting into less Oxygen supply. And leading to other organ failure.
There's more. But like any medical journal, it's all written more scarily than it needs be. :-)
I don't think we have any work learning it all. Other than watching for symptoms. And symptoms are more like AIDS, blisters on body. or Ebola, body bleeding.
Link in comment.
Looks like the end is near. [ insert meme image here ]
Might be a side effect of me looking too deep into something that I shouldn't have done for sanity's sake.
For example ever tried reading any medical article for any disease? Any? Explains in gory details how the phases roll from mild to seriousness to more serious to being limbless or death.
Reading these things will drive you insane. Solution is... to just not read those. Ignorance is bliss.
Guess I have to find more of my meme-music and jokes to share :-)
Summary : It's 20 times deadlier than seasonal flu, they now say. 20% chance that illness will be severe to fatal.
Within 44,672 confirmed patients :
Fatality rate found : 2.3 percent.
Rate further increased in recent days.
"That is far higher than the mortality rate of the seasonal flu, with which the new coronavirus has sometimes been compared. In the United States, flu fatality rates hover around 0.1 percent."
- Mild illness : 81 percent of confirmed diagnoses.
- severe case of COVID-19 : 14 percent.
- Critial : 5 percent.
Age of dead :
Men are twice as likely to die than women even if both are infected :
"Though men and women were roughly equally represented among the confirmed cases, men made up nearly 64 percent of the deaths."
Patients with underlying medical conditions, such as cardiovascular disease or diabetes, died at higher rates.
Actually no new info here. This one confirms the rough estimation of numbers we were scared of in the first days.
It's deadly within a bad scale, and not like seasonal flu.
Developing story. Shall wait to see where else it pops up, unexpectedly and already out of control.
Which is why I post news of these only in English, and try my best not to cover local news -- but still might not save my ass if done for too long. :-)
Wondering what to do next?
Music, games, science or movie reporting might be a distraction :V
- South Korea exploding : Number of ncov infection doubled from 50 to 100 yesterday. And now again has doubled to 200 in a day. Cities and armed forces are getting don't-travel quarantine warning. Report, armies have caught it too.
- Iran. Unofficial report 9 dead. Doctor's voice message 20 dead in his hospital. Cities getting quarantined. Iraq and Kuwait closed border and stopped flight from Iran. A Canadian returning from Iran caught the virus.
- Japan. Quarantined a cruise ship called Diamond Princess as one passenger in there was infected. Not allowing others to disembark. Only to see the infection spread within that ship. Now 2 dead, 600+ infected within that ship. Later the taxi drivers carrying passengers off that ship caught the virus too.
- Most number of cases outside of China was in Singapore, until Japan crossed it suddenly. And now South Korea has crossed it.
- And as of China, two prisons have caught the virus. 200+ prisoners infected.
I could go on with deeper info on everything, but as the saying goes "নাম বললে আইডি থাকবে না"।
On a positive news : China is declaring it's quarantine checks off. Opening all offices and factories and making it mandatory to attend office.
Even if the virus spreads, keeping production down is more harmful than the virus.
Lets watch what's next.
InshaAllah tomorrow I shall increase the dry stock to 3 months.
And by the way, there's no reason to panic. It's like flu and more people die in road accident, heart attack, cancer or diabetics in BD than these viruses.
Which is why I am stocking a little bit, as everything is normal, nothing to worry about and no sin in stocking in normal times :-)
Warning : The following is fictional writing based on Resident Evil, the popular Hollywood movie. Any resemblance to reality is pure coincidence.
Italy : 200 infected, 4 dead.
Iran : ILNA Irani gov news agency reports 50 dead, link to AP coverage in comment. Officially 12 dead.
S. Korea : 1000 infected, 7 dead.
Panic has hit, S. Korea, and Italy. In Italy store shelves have emptied out.
Yesterday there was a positive sign in China that they have "loosen" the lockdown in Wuhan a little bit. And today they retracted that declaration.
Production hasn't resume. No one is showing up for work.
Anyway the graphics looks subpar compared to modern standards. Compare it with, say G.o.War.
Didn't play it. Gave up on gaming at around 2000.
- China recovering. New infections outside of Hubei province down to 1 or 2.
- Today the number of new infections in rest of the world was more than that in China.
- Factories resuming. Even though at half the capacity for the time being.
- No children died of COVID. It's only elders that are dying. So your children is probably safe.
- If at 2% mortality rate 80% are above 60 yo, then anyone bellow 60 falls at mortality rate of only 0.5%.
Indicating it has gone out of containment. They had been holding this info.
A. Summer stops the flu. And Greta is an enemy of warm weather.
Wondering what awaits the upcoming Hajj.
Told you : perform the Hajj as soon as you have the cash to do so, as next year won't be like this one.
- South Korea : 50% of all infected linked to Shincheonji Church of Jesus. 80% tested from church, tested positive.
- 2nd church linked in Korea where 100s of them were returning from Israel after pilgrim.
- And 3rd church linked. Myeongseong megachurch in Seoul.
Plus previously in Singapore :
Majority of cases and clusters there linked to
- Life Church and Missions Singapore, and
And just a few days back I was wondering if this virus spreads, would I still be able to say my congregational prayers in local mosque? :V :V :V Would the gov allow us? Will the Imam still be there to lead? And then also was wondering what will happen to Hajj, but it's already in news.
News in comment.
But US still doesn't recommend face masks.
While Chinese authorities do.
Viruses ain't blocked by masks, but water droplets are. And viruses don't float in air by itself, it needs a carrier, and water droplets from breath and coughs are the carrier.
Just know that there are alternatives to buying masks at exorbitant price.
Yes, I have my big bro too, which is why I hate them :-)
Replied, "Why you ask me?"
I said, "Just for the fun of it. Love to listen."
"Ok", he said. "Only aged people are dying from the virus, and Trump is 70+ just returned from India visit where no one is checked for the virus. And ..."
"Pope Francis has only single lung instead of two like us, this is where the virus attacks most, and Italy is seeing it spread like wild fire, the country where the city of Rome lies."
"Well that was shocking. Anything more?"
"Check the AP news in comment."
// fun post.
// work of fiction.
// not seriously.
Indonesia and ... ... ... Bangladesh :-)
None of these actually happened. Instead we are now overflown with oil. Further oil is no longer used for power production. It's mostly all wind and solar. The world now is so less dependent on oil.
Rather the end of the civilization is coming from an unexpected source. The medieval virus?
Proving once again, nothing happens as I assume it will.
// not really the "end". that was just a way of talking. those that take things too seriously. :-)
- Pope sick for 4 days now. All his schedules cancelled. A record.
- Rumors, Iran's Ayatullah, the head of the state is sick.
- Tom Cruise quarantined. But that's no news unless you are from the 80s.